Working Papers:
Firm Foundations: Legal Systems and Economic Performance in Colonial Shanghai, 1903-1934 (Job Market Paper)
Abstract: How important are legal systems to economic performance? To address this question, I focus on a historical period from colonial Shanghai, where quite different legal systems operated in the International Settlement andFrench Concession. In particular, employing novel historical data, I examine 1903–1934 land value discontinuities at the border between these Settlements. Substantial discontinuities were found in the 1900s, with higher land values associated with the International Settlement. However, by the 1930s, this land value advantage of the International Settlement had disappeared. A closer look at the institutions reveals that the French Concession adapted its operation to be more business friendly, under competition from the neighboring International Settlement. This suggests that the French legal system per se was not a barrier to economic growth, but rather it could function well if interpreted and implemented properly. This paper thus adds to evidence that formal legal system is not a key determinant of economic performance.
Firm Foundations: Legal Systems and Economic Performance in Colonial Shanghai, 1903-1934 (Job Market Paper)
Abstract: How important are legal systems to economic performance? To address this question, I focus on a historical period from colonial Shanghai, where quite different legal systems operated in the International Settlement andFrench Concession. In particular, employing novel historical data, I examine 1903–1934 land value discontinuities at the border between these Settlements. Substantial discontinuities were found in the 1900s, with higher land values associated with the International Settlement. However, by the 1930s, this land value advantage of the International Settlement had disappeared. A closer look at the institutions reveals that the French Concession adapted its operation to be more business friendly, under competition from the neighboring International Settlement. This suggests that the French legal system per se was not a barrier to economic growth, but rather it could function well if interpreted and implemented properly. This paper thus adds to evidence that formal legal system is not a key determinant of economic performance.
| firm_foundations_v7.pdf |
Path Dependence in Shanghai: How did the Old Tramway Shape the City
Abstract: This paper studies the short-run and long-run economic consequences of the now-extinct Shanghai tramway system. Geo-locating the tramway lines on both historical cadastral maps and current google maps, I sort land parcels in the 1900s—1910s and residential complexes in 2018 into treatment and control groups based on their proximities to the tramway that opened for public transit in 1908. Utilising historical data, a triple difference estimation indicates that the tramway system brought integration in the real estate market by connecting geographically dispersed areas. Estimation based on modern data reveals a persistent effect of the tramway lines on the nearby housing price, but only in the “periphery” that is outside the former Settlements and the Old Shanghai Town. Comparison between the effects of tramway in both short-run and long-run thus implies that the influence of the retired public transportation is dissipating over time.
Work in Progress:
Sell or Rent Out: Private Properties under Different Legal Systems in Colonial Shanghai (with Shuo Chen)
Abstract: When people become pessimistic about the future or expect a real estate recession, they are more likely to sell their properties. To investigate whether the turmoil and chaos in Shanghai during the first half of the 20th century influenced people’s expectations of the future, we analyse the probability of a property going on sale over this historical period. Based on selling and leasing advertisements posted on Shun Pao, we find that in turbulent times including the 1911 Revolution, May Fourth Movement, May Thirtieth Movement, Workers’ Armed Uprising, Occupation of Japan, and Recovery of the Settlements, the properties in both the French Concession and the International Settlements were more likely to be sold rather than rented out. However, such effect was more pronounced in the French Concession, implying that property owners were relatively less confident in private property protection under the French legal system.
References:
Christopher M. Meissner (Chair)
cmmeissner@ucdavis.edu
Gregory Clark
gclark@ucdavis.edu
Shu Shen
shushen@ucdavis.edu
Abstract: This paper studies the short-run and long-run economic consequences of the now-extinct Shanghai tramway system. Geo-locating the tramway lines on both historical cadastral maps and current google maps, I sort land parcels in the 1900s—1910s and residential complexes in 2018 into treatment and control groups based on their proximities to the tramway that opened for public transit in 1908. Utilising historical data, a triple difference estimation indicates that the tramway system brought integration in the real estate market by connecting geographically dispersed areas. Estimation based on modern data reveals a persistent effect of the tramway lines on the nearby housing price, but only in the “periphery” that is outside the former Settlements and the Old Shanghai Town. Comparison between the effects of tramway in both short-run and long-run thus implies that the influence of the retired public transportation is dissipating over time.
Work in Progress:
Sell or Rent Out: Private Properties under Different Legal Systems in Colonial Shanghai (with Shuo Chen)
Abstract: When people become pessimistic about the future or expect a real estate recession, they are more likely to sell their properties. To investigate whether the turmoil and chaos in Shanghai during the first half of the 20th century influenced people’s expectations of the future, we analyse the probability of a property going on sale over this historical period. Based on selling and leasing advertisements posted on Shun Pao, we find that in turbulent times including the 1911 Revolution, May Fourth Movement, May Thirtieth Movement, Workers’ Armed Uprising, Occupation of Japan, and Recovery of the Settlements, the properties in both the French Concession and the International Settlements were more likely to be sold rather than rented out. However, such effect was more pronounced in the French Concession, implying that property owners were relatively less confident in private property protection under the French legal system.
References:
Christopher M. Meissner (Chair)
cmmeissner@ucdavis.edu
Gregory Clark
gclark@ucdavis.edu
Shu Shen
shushen@ucdavis.edu
